Apple TV Plus felt like the new HBO, but its golden age could be over already – and that’s a real shame

Opinion: It felt like the new HBO, but a strategy shift is no surprise

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Apple TV Plushas a problem: it’s spending an absolute ton of money on shows that nobody’s watching. And by “a ton of money”, I mean exactly that: a newBloombergreport says thatApplehas spent more than $20 billion to get just 0.2% of the US streaming audience.

Despite Apple’s huge spending on movies and shows, more people watch Netflix in a single day than stream Apple TV Plus in an entire month. And that’s one of the big reasons why Apple is, according to Bloomberg’s sources, preparing to a shift in strategy to make its streaming platform more sustainable – and potentially, less exciting.

To take just one example, the prestige dramaMasters of the Aircost over $250 million and was the only Apple TV Plus show to feature in this year’s Nielsen rankings (the main source of US TV ratings). It nevertheless got a smaller audience than Netflix’sHouse of Ninjas. And Apple’s cinema adventures have performed disappointingly, too: its critically-acclaimed Martin Scorsese movieKillers of the Flower Moonreportedly earned $157 million globally but cost $200 million to make.

Apple’s disappointing viewing numbers and box office are a real shame, because for viewers like me, Apple TV Plus is the new HBO.

It’s the only streaming service I’ve never canceled or even really complained about; chances are, if I’m bending your ear about a brilliant new show, it’s an Apple TV Plus one. But you probably won’t watch it. And that means the golden age of Apple TV Plus could be coming to an end. The future of Apple TV Plus, it seems, looks a lot like Netflix.

Why Apple TV Plus was the new HBO

I think that some of the very best shows available on any streamer are Apple Originals. For me the standouts have beenSeveranceandSlow Horses, both of which I’m currently rewatching with my equally smitten teen, as well as the delightfully silly but completely grippingFor All Mankind, the claustrophobicSiloand the surprisingly affectingShrinking. And I also loved the Colin Farrell showSugar, although I suspect I was one of very few people watching it.

Chances are, if I’m bending your ear about a brilliant new show, it’s an Apple TV Plus one.

What all of these shows have in common is that they’re very expensive. Apple has developed a reputation for generous budgets and big spending on talent.

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That’s a combination that means lots of famous faces: Cate Blanchett inDisclaimer, Meryl Street inExtrapolations, Tom Hanks inGreyhound, Elizabeth Moss inShining Girls, Nicole Kidman inRoar, Harrison Ford inShrinking, Jennifer Aniston and Reese Witherspoon inThe Morning Show, Jake Gyllenhaal inPresumed Innocent… you get the idea.

Apple has developed a reputation as the streamer with deep pockets, a place where creatives can make their dream projects with their dream casts. Which would be great if they were also bringing in dream viewing numbers. But they’re not.

As I’ve been finding again and again, when I tell people about a new Apple TV Plus show, they haven’t heard of it and they haven’t considered subscribing to Apple TV Plus anyway. And if I’m being totally honest, some of the shows I’ve mentioned in the paragraph above… I hadn’t heard of some of them either. I can’t help thinking if Apple had spent a bit less on talent and a bit more on marketing, more people would be watching its shows.

Shows not being hits isn’t just an Apple TV Plus problem, of course. Netflix churns out tons of stuff every day that will pass most of us by. But – and no disrespect to Netflix here – a lot of that stuff is cheaply made or cheaply bought. And currently Apple TV Plus doesn’t really do cheap: according to theFinancial Times, each episode of Apple’sThe Morning Showcosts more to make than the action-packed final episodes ofGame of Thrones.

What’s the plan for Apple TV Plus now?

According to Bloomberg’s reports, Apple is now doing two things: it’s considering licensing more movies from Hollywood to expand its catalog, and it’s being much more careful about what it’s green-lighting and how much it’s spending on them.

I can’t help thinking if Apple had spent a bit less on talent and a bit more on marketing, more people would be watching its shows.

Bloomberg’s analysis shows that Apple is canceling shows more quickly than before: in 2019 the average number of seasons per show was 3.67 but now it’s down to 2.0, and the percent of shows going to a third season has dropped from 100% in 2019 to just 22% today. That means Apple is operating much more like Netflix when it comes to green-lighting or choosing not to make successive seasons.

Even prestigious shows are feeling the pinch.Foundationhas already been delayed to keep it within budget and Apple has reportedly pressured the producers to keep costs down; and future seasons ofSeveranceare apparently far from certain because Apple wants guarantees about how much it’ll cost.

Apple is hardly short of cash, but it still has to answer to investors; spending so much money for so little return isn’t sustainable even when you have Apple’s deep pockets.

So it’s probably inevitable that Apple TV Plus is going to become more like Netflix and its rivals – even if that does mean sacrificing show quality for viewer quantity. We’ve seen signs of that already with the streameradding classic moviesandlicensing titles from the major studios.

It’ll still make great shows, but maybe not so many. I should probably stop holding my breath for a second season ofSugar.

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Writer, broadcaster, musician and kitchen gadget obsessive Carrie Marshall has been writing about tech since 1998, contributing sage advice and odd opinions to all kinds of magazines and websites as well as writing more than a dozen books. Her memoir,Carrie Kills A Man, is on sale now and her next book, about pop music, is out in 2025. She is the singer in Glaswegian rock bandUnquiet Mind.

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